Published forecast
Kestrel Oat Bars · UK Grocery · weekly
18.4M units
- Expected range
- 17.6 – 19.1M
- Published
- 02 Jul 2026
- Owner
- Category & Product Management
Forecasting
Know what demand does next. Forecast it to the last SKU.
Molsaro forecasts unit demand across every market, brand and SKU you sell. Every forecast carries the range around it, the movements behind each revision, and its record against what actually happened. Published once, and planned against by every team.
Published forecast
Kestrel Oat Bars · UK Grocery · weekly
Published 02 Jul 2026 · Owner Category & Product Management
18.4M units
- Expected range
- 17.6 – 19.1M
- Against plan
- +2.8%
What gets forecast
A forecast for every product you sell.
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Every SKU in the portfolio
Fast movers and slow movers alike, each with its own forecast — not a sample of the top sellers with the rest averaged in.
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On your calendar
Daily, weekly or monthly, on the grain your sales data actually arrives in.
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Units and value
Unit demand across the portfolio, and sales value wherever your price basis is complete.
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Your routes to market
Customer, account, channel and geography views wherever your connected data supports them.
The forecast reads from the sales, price, promotion and distribution data already connected to your workspace. See the connectors
One forecast, every level
Every level of the portfolio adds up to the same forecast.
- Your market total, your brand plans and your SKU lines come from one forecast, so Revenue Growth Management, Finance and Category & Product Management are working from the same number without reconciling spreadsheets afterwards.
- Your own products sit inside the whole market you compete in, not beside it — so share is a result of the forecast, not a separate exercise.
- A revision at one level appears at every other level in the same run.
- Customer, account, channel and geography views join the same structure wherever your connected data supports them.
Market
UK Grocery · 128.0M
Your brands
31.5M
The market around you
96.5M
Brand
Your brands · 31.5M
Kestrel Oat Bars
18.4M
Kestrel Protein
7.9M
Northfell Fruit & Nut
5.2M
Kestrel Protein 7.9M · Northfell Fruit & Nut 5.2M
SKU
Kestrel Oat Bars · 18.4M
Original 6-pack
8.1M
Chocolate 6-pack
5.6M
Berry 6-pack
3.1M
Original 12-pack
1.6M
Original 6-pack 8.1M · Chocolate 6-pack 5.6M · Berry 6-pack 3.1M · Original 12-pack 1.6M
The same +0.70M revision carries through all three levels.
Customer · Account · Channel · Geography
where your connected data supports them
One forecast drawn at three levels. The UK Grocery market totals 128.0 million units over the next thirteen weeks; your own brands are 31.5 million of it, 24.6 per cent. Those 31.5 million split into Kestrel Oat Bars 18.4 million, Kestrel Protein 7.9 million and Northfell Fruit and Nut 5.2 million. Kestrel Oat Bars splits again into Original 6-pack 8.1 million, Chocolate 6-pack 5.6 million, Berry 6-pack 3.1 million and Original 12-pack 1.6 million. Every level sums exactly to the level above it. Customer, account, channel and geography views join the same structure where connected data supports them.
Behind the number
Every revision explained. Every forecast measured.
- Every revision arrives with the business movements that sit behind it — market, competitive, price, promotion, distribution, holiday, weather, seasonality, trend and base — and with the part no movement accounts for, shown rather than absorbed.
- Closed periods are scored against what actually happened: error, bias, and how often the actual landed inside the range you published.
- Ask in plain language why the forecast moved, and get the answer with the figures it was drawn from.
What moved since the last published forecast
+0.70M units
revision since the last published forecast
- Distribution +0.42
- Promotion +0.31
- Seasonality +0.12
- Price −0.18
- Competitive −0.09
- Residual (balancing) +0.12
Revision+0.70M
How the last forecast held up
- 6.4%
- Error (WMAPE)
- +1.2%
- Bias (over-forecast)
- 11 of 13
- Weeks inside the published range
Kestrel Oat Bars · UK Grocery · weekly · comparison window 2026-W14 to 2026-W26
Scenario
Q4 feature & display · W40–W44
Reference case: published forecast, 18.4M units
+1.2M units
- Expected range
- 18.9 – 20.4M
- Revenue
- +£4.1M
- Gross profit
- +£0.9M
Reviewed by Category & Product Management · 09 Jul 2026
not adopted
Plan · Q4 2026
Kestrel Oat Bars · UK Grocery
19.6M units
- Adopted
- 09 Jul 2026
- By
- Category & Product Management
Published forecast unchanged 18.4M
From forecast to commitment
Turn a scenario into a plan your team owns.
- The published forecast is the reference case. Every scenario is measured against it, and running one never changes it.
- Compare units, the range around them, revenue and gross profit before anyone commits budget to the move.
- A named team reviews the scenario and adopts it. Adoption moves the plan; the published forecast stays exactly where it was, so next month's accuracy review still means something.
- Whatever your teams adopt keeps the function that approved it and the date they did.
Start with one category. Leave with the forecast.
A season of your sales history is enough. We will show you the forecast, the range around it, and the decisions it changes.